Why Does This Take So Long?
Creating a global wireless standard isn’t like releasing an app update.
Every country, every telecom company, and every device manufacturer needs to agree on how phones will communicate. Getting that agreement takes about 10 years per generation.
5G took from 2012 (early research) to 2020 (widespread deployment). 6G follows the same pattern.
The Three-Phase Process
Every cellular generation goes through the same stages:
| Phase | Duration | What Happens |
|---|---|---|
| Vision & Requirements | Years 1-3 | ITU-R defines targets |
| Technology Development | Years 3-7 | 3GPP writes specifications |
| Deployment | Years 7-10+ | Networks go live |
Phase 1: Vision & Requirements
Who: ITU-R (the radio arm of the International Telecommunication Union)
What: They define what the next generation should achieve.
For 6G, this is called IMT-2030 (just like 5G was “IMT-2020”).
IMT-2030 sets targets like:
- How fast should it be?
- How low should latency be?
- How many devices per square kilometer?
- What new capabilities are needed?
The ITU doesn’t build anything. They define the goals that everyone else builds toward.
Phase 2: Technology Development
Who: 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project)
What: They write the actual technical specifications that engineers use to build networks.
How 3GPP works:
- Companies propose technologies
- Proposals are tested and debated
- Winners get included in the standard
- Specifications are published as Releases
| Release | Expected | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Rel-20 | 2025 | Final 5G-Advanced |
| Rel-21 | 2027 | Early 6G foundations |
| Rel-22 | 2029 | Full 6G specifications |
Phase 3: Deployment
Who: Network operators (Vodafone, AT&T, etc.) and device manufacturers (Apple, Samsung, etc.)
What: Build the actual networks and devices.
Deployment is gradual:
- Trial networks in select cities
- Commercial launch in major markets
- Mass rollout over several years
- Device availability lags behind networks
Just because the standard is finished doesn’t mean you can use it tomorrow.
The 6G Timeline
| Year | Milestone |
|---|---|
| 2021-2023 | Research begins, vision papers published |
| 2023 | ITU-R starts IMT-2030 framework |
| 2027 | IMT-2030 requirements finalized |
| 2028-2029 | Technology proposals evaluated |
| 2030 | First 6G specifications expected |
| 2030-2035 | Commercial deployment begins |
IMT-2030: The 6G Vision
ITU-R’s IMT-2030 framework defines six usage scenarios for 6G:
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| Immersive Communication | Holographic calls, extended reality |
| Hyper Reliable Low Latency | Remote surgery, industrial control |
| Massive Communication | Billions of IoT sensors |
| Ubiquitous Connectivity | Coverage everywhere, including rural/ocean |
| AI & Communication | AI-native network design |
| Integrated Sensing | Radar + communication in one system |
6G Performance Targets
How does 6G compare to 5G?
| Metric | 5G Target | 6G Target | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Speed | 20 Gbps | 1 Tbps | 50x |
| Latency | 1 ms | 0.1 ms | 10x |
| Connection Density | 1M/km² | 10M/km² | 10x |
| Reliability | 99.999% | 99.99999% | 100x |
| Energy Efficiency | Baseline | 100x better | 100x |
These are targets, not guarantees. The final standard may differ.
Key Technologies Expected in 6G
New spectrum:
- Sub-THz frequencies (100 GHz - 300 GHz)
- Massive bandwidth, but very short range
AI integration:
- AI for network optimization
- AI for resource allocation
- AI-native protocol design
New capabilities:
- Integrated sensing and communication (radar + data in same signal)
- Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (smart walls that reflect signals)
- Non-terrestrial networks (satellites as standard, not add-on)
The Organizations Involved
| Organization | Role | Output |
|---|---|---|
| ITU-R | Sets global vision | IMT-2030 requirements |
| 3GPP | Writes technical specs | Release 21, 22+ |
| National Regulators | Allocate spectrum | Country-specific bands |
| Industry Alliances | Promote adoption | Marketing, interoperability |
Key Takeaways
- Standardization takes ~10 years per generation
- ITU-R sets the vision (IMT-2030), 3GPP writes the specs
- 6G specs expected around 2030, deployment follows
- Key targets: 1 Tbps speed, 0.1 ms latency, AI-native design
- New technologies: Sub-THz spectrum, integrated sensing, intelligent surfaces